07 Feb 2023

Bracketology – Class 4A

The district tournaments are set and the regional round of the playoffs are a week-and-a-half away.  We thought it might be interesting to try our hand at some “Bracketology” and try to determine the shape of the regional playoffs.

This year is different as the regional round will be “re-seeded” at the end of the district tournament and will include results from both the last week of the season as well as the district tournament.  In the past, rankings at the end of the next to last week of the season, the last week for district play, was used for district seeding purposes as well as to determine the at-large seeds.

We used assumptions to get to the brackets.  We based them on the idea that the district tournament will play out as seeded, with no upsets.  From there, we used the FHSAA rankings as of January 30th to help determine seeding.

Here goes.


The projected district winners in this region are Panama City Bay (#15) from District One, Panama City Rutherford (#37) from District Two, Jacksonville Ribault (#4) from District Three and Jacksonville Bishop Kenny (#6) from District Four.  The expected at-large teams will be Jacksonville Paxon (#12) and Jacksonville Bolles (#16) from District Four, Jacksonville Jackson from District Three and Santa Rosa Beach South Walton (#21) from District One.

Because Rutherford has the lowest rating of the projected eight teams, it will be put on the road in the regional round despite winning the district.  The seeding would look like this:

One Seed Jacksonville Ribault (#4) vs. Eight Seed Panama City Rutherford (#37) at Ribault

Four Seed Andrew Jackson (#14) vs. Five Seed Panama City Bay (#15) at Bay

Three Seed Paxon School (#12) vs. Six Seed Bolles (#16) at Paxon

Two Seed Bishop Kenny (#6) vs Seven Seed South Walton (#23) at Bishop Kenney


Alachua Santa Fe (#5) in District Five, The Villages Charter (#7) of District Six, Orlando Lake Highland Prep (#19) from District Seven and Cocoa (#17) of District Eight are the forecasted District winners.  The at-large seeds are projected to be Citra North Marion (#18) and Palatka (#22) from District Five and Umatilla (#13) and Eustis (#24)  from District Six.  Right now, Melbourne Palm Bay (#26), Orlando Bishop Moore (#29) and Bushnell South Sumter (#31) are on the outside looking in.

The brackets would then come out this way.

One Seed Alachua Santa Fe (#5) vs. Eight Seed Eustis (#24) at Santa Fe

Four Seed Cocoa (#17) vs. Five Seed North Marion (#18) at Cocoa

Three Seed Umatilla (#13) vs. Six Seed Orlando Lake Highland Prep (#19) at Lake Highland

Two Seed The Villages Charter (#7) vs. Seven Seed Palatka (#22) at The Villages Charter


Over on the west coast of the peninsula, Brooksville Central (#25) of District Nine, St. Petersburg Gibbs (#8) of District Ten, Lake Placid (#56) of District Eleven and Fort Myers Gateway (#23) of District Twelve project to be the automatic qualifiers.  Our guess is the at-large teams will be St. Pete Lakewood (#30) and Tampa Robinson (#32) from District Ten and Englewood Lemon Bay (#39) and Estero (#41).

The brackets would then look this way

One Seed St. Pete Gibbs (#4) vs. Eight Seed Lake Placid (#56) at Gibbs

Four Seed St. Pete Lakewood (#30) vs. Five Seed Tampa Robinson (#32) at Lakewood

Three Seed Brooksville Central (#25) vs Six Seed Englewood Lemon Bay (#39) at Central

Two Seed Fort Myers Gateway (#23) vs. Seven Seed Estero (#42) at Gateway


This region has six of the top eleven teams in the classification.  The projection for district winners is Coconut Creek North Broward Prep (#3) from District Thirteen, Miami Mater Lakes Academy (#1) from District Fourteen, Miami Booker T. Washington (#27) of District Fifteen and Miami St. Brendan (#10) of District Sixteen.  That would suggest Fort Lauderdale Cardinal Gibbons (#2) and Hallandale (#9) from District Fourteen, Miami Gulliver Prep (#11) from District Sixteen and Boynton Beach Somerset Academy-Canyons (#20) of District Thirteen receive the at-large bids.

The bracket would then be as follows:

One Seed Miami Mater Lakes Academy (#1) vs. Eight Seed Miami Booker T. Washington (#27) at Mater Lakes Academy

Four Seed Hallandale (#9) vs. Five Seed Miami St. Brendan (#10) at Miami St. Brendan

Three Seed North Broward Prep (#3) vs. Six Seed Miami Gulliver Prep (311) at North Broward Prep

Two Seed Cardinal Gibbons (#2) vs. Seven Seed Somerset Academy-Canyons (#20) at Gibbons

Because Booker T.  has the lowest rating, it becomes the eight seed and goes on the road despite being the “winner” of its district.  This allows #2 Gibbons, though a district runner-up in this scenario, a home game against another non-district winner.  Because Hallandale and St. Brendan is the natural 4 vs 5 matchup, St. Brendan, despite being number five, gets the home game as it won its district while Hallandale did not.


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