08 Feb 2023

Bracketology – Class 5A

The district tournaments are set and the regional round of the playoffs are a week-and-a-half away.  We thought it might be interesting to try our hand at some “Bracketology” and try to determine the shape of the regional playoffs.

This year is different as the regional round will be “re-seeded” at the end of the district tournament and will include results from both the last week of the season as well as the district tournament.  In the past, rankings at the end of the next to last week of the season, the last week for district play, was used for district seeding purposes as well as to determine the at-large seeds.

We used assumptions to get to the brackets.  We based them on the idea that the district tournament will play out as seeded, with no upsets.  From there, we used the FHSAA rankings as of January 30th to help determine seeding.

Here goes.


This region stretches from Pensacola to Deltona on the east coast, so there will be some teams putting in a lot of miles.  The projected district winners are Fort Walton Beach Choctawhatchee (#11) from District One, Lake City Columbia (#13) from District Two, Jacksonville Riverside (#18) from District Three and Daytona Beach Mainland (#4) from District Four.  The al-large berths are expected to be Pensacola Booker T. Washington (#12) from District One, Tallahassee Rickards (#3) from District Two, and both Deltona (#25) and St. Augustine (#32) from District Four.

The brackets would then fall out this way

One Seed Mainland (#4) vs. Eight Seed Rickards (#33) at Mainland

Four Seed Columbia (#13) vs. Five Seed Riverside (#18) at Columbia

Three Seed Booker T. (#12) vs. Six Seed Deltona (#25) at Booker T.

Two Seed Choctaw (#11) vs. St. Augustine (#32) at Choctaw


In the center of the state, Leesburg (#19) of District Five, Wesley Chapel (#36) of District Six, Orlando Jones (#3) of District Seven and Tampa Jesuit (#7) from District Eight are the presumptive winners.  The at-large berths would then be Lecanto (#24) from District Five, Auburndale (#8) from District Seven and a pair of teams from District Eight in Tampa Blake (#17) and Tampa King (#23).

The bracket would then shake out this way.

One Seed Jones (#3) vs. Eight Seed Wesley Chapel (#36) at Jones

Four Seed Blake (#17) vs. Five Seed Leesburg (#19) at Leesburg

Three Seed Auburndale (#8) vs. Six Seed King (#23) at Auburndale

Two Seed Jesuit (#7) vs. Seven Seed Lecanto (#24) at Jesuit

Despite being the projected district winner, Wesley Chapel has to go on the round in the first round due to its low rating.  This allows Auburndale to host a game of at-large teams.  Leesburg as a five seed gets a home game over the natural four seed as Leesburg won it district and Blake did not in this scenario


In this region, the projected district winners are Seminole (#22) in District Nine, St. Petersburgh High (#10) in District Ten, Port Charlotte (#21) in District Eleven, and Naples Barron Collier (#5) in District Twelve.  Look for Bradenton Southeast (#16) and Sebring (#34) of District Ten, Cape Coral Mariner (#28) from District Eleven and Naples HS (#27) from District Twelve to get in as the at-large berths.

The brackets would then be:

One Seed Barron Collier (#5) vs. Eight Seed Sebring (#34) at Barron Collier

Four Seed Port Charlotte (#21) vs. Five Seed Seminole (#22) at Port Charlotte

Three Seed Bradenton Southeast (#16) vs. Six Seed Naples (#27) at Southeast

Two Seed St. Petersburg (#10) vs. Seven Seed Cape Coral Mariner (#28) at St. Petersburg


In South Florida the projected automatic qualifiers would be Rockledge (#9) from District Thirteen, Riviera Beach Suncoast (#2) from District Fourteen, Miami Norland (#6) from District Fifteen and Miami Belen Jesuit (#1) from District 16.  In this scenario, at-large berths would go to Fort Lauderdale Stranahan (#14) of District Fourteen, Fort Lauderdale Archbishop McCarthy (#15) and Hialeah American (#26) of District Fifteen and Miami Northwestern (#20) from District Sixteen.

The brackets would then fall naturally this way.

One Seed Belen Jesuit (#1) vs. Eight Seed American (#26) at Belen

Four Seed Rockledge (#9) vs. Five Seed Stranahan (#14) at Rockledge

Three Seed Norland (#6) vs. Six Seed AB McCarthy (#15) at Norland

Two Seed Suncoast (#2) vs. Seven Seed Northwestern (#20)



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