The district tournaments are set and the regional round of the playoffs are a week-and-a-half away. We thought it might be interesting to try our hand at some “Bracketology” and try to determine the shape of the regional playoffs.
This year is different as the regional round will be “re-seeded” at the end of the district tournament and will include results from both the last week of the season as well as the district tournament. In the past, rankings at the end of the next to last week of the season, the last week for district play, was used for district seeding purposes as well as to determine the at-large seeds.
We used assumptions to get to the brackets. We based them on the idea that the district tournament will play out as seeded, with no upsets. From there, we used the FHSAA rankings as of January 30th to help determine seeding.
The four district winners are assumed to be Tallahassee Florida High (#3) in District One, Gainesville P.K. Yonge (#35) in District Two, Top-Ranked Jacksonville Providence in District Three and The Master’s Academy out of Oviedo (#12) in District Four. The assumed at-large bids will go Tallahassee Maclay (#8) and Marianna (#26), both from District One, The Episcopal School of Jacksonville (#9) from District Three and Interlachen (#44) from District Two. The most likely “gate crasher” would be #48 Jacksonville University Christian.
The seeding would shake out this way.
One Seed Jacksonville Providence (#1) vs. Eight Seed Interlachen (#33) at Providence
Four Seed Oviedo The Master’s Academy vs. Five Seed Episcopal School of Jacksonville at The Master’s Academy
Two Seed Tallahassee Florida High (#3) vs. Seven Seed Gainesville P.K. Yonge at Florida High
Three Seed Tallahassee Maclay (#8) vs. Six Seed Marianna (#26) at Maclay
Despite P.K. Yonge being the projected District Two winner, the seeding puts them on the road at District One champ Florida High. This also puts projected non-district winner but third-highest ranked Maclay at home in the first round of the regional. Because projected district winner The Master’s Academy would “naturally” take on at-large bid Episcopal, The Master’s would get to host that game.
The four district winners are projected to be Melbourne Holy Trinity Episcopal (#20) from District Five, Windermere Prep (#10) from District Six, Riverview Bell Creek Academy (#14) from District Seven and West Palm Beach The King’s Academy (#16) out of District Eight. The four at-large berths are projected to be Lakeland Santa Fe Catholic (#22) and Seffner Christian (#28) out of District Seven, Palm Beach Gardens Benjamin (#23) from District Eight and Winter Garden Foundation Academy (#30) from District Six. Orlando The First Academy (#33) and Riviera Beach Inlet Grove (#34) have real chances of sneaking up and sneaking into the regional round.
The seeding would set up like this:
One Seed Windermere Prep #10) vs. Eight Seed Winter Garden Foundation Academy (#30) at Windermere Prep
Four Seed Melbourne Holy Trinity (#20) vs. Five Seed Lakeland Santa Fe Catholic (#22) at Holy Trinity
Three Seed West Palm Beach The King’s Academy (#16) vs. Six Seed Benjamin (#23) at The King’s Academy
Two Seed Riverview Bell Creek Academy (#14) vs. Seven Seed Seffner Christian (#28) at Bell Creek Academy
It will be interesting to see how Bell Creek’s Academy last second win at Windermere Prep the last week of the season will impact their respective regional seeding.
Over in Southwest Florida, the projected district winners are #5 Berkely Prep from Tampa in District Nine, #6 Clearwater Calvary Christian in District 10, Bradenton Christian (#29) in District Eleven and Fort Myers Gateway Charter (#11) out of District Twelve. The teams that make up the at-large births are very strong with Tampa Catholic (#7) and Tampa Brooks-DeBartolo (#13) out of District Nine, #15 Naples First Baptist Academy from District Twelve and Northside Christian (#21) from St. Petersburg. Tampa Prep (#25), Sarasota Cardinal Mooney (#31) and Community School of Naples (#32) are the most likely to slip into the region round.
The seeding would then be:
One Seed Tampa Berkeley Prep (#5) vs. Eight Seed Bradenton Christian (#29) at Berkeley Prep
Four Seed Fort Myers Gateway Charter (#11) vs. Five Seed Brooks-DeBartolo (#13) at Gateway Charter
Three Seed Tampa Catholic (#5) vs. Six Seed Naples First Baptist Academy (#15) at Tampa Catholic
Two Seed Clearwater Calvary Christian (#6) vs. Seventh Seed Northside Christian (#21) at Calvary
Because Bradenton Christian is the lowest seed at #29, despite being the projected district winner, they would go on the road. That opens up a home game for Tampa Catholic in what would be a very intriguing matchup should they play First Baptist Academy out of Naples. All in all, this may be the most competitive region playoff regardless of class in the state.
In South Florida, it is projected that Boca Raton St. Andrew’s (#37) out of District Thirteen, #4 Westminster Academy of Fort Lauderdale in District Fourteen, Doral Divine Savior (#17) of District Fifteen and #2 Miami Riviera Prep from District Sixteen will be the district winners. The at-large teams look to be Miami Country Day (#18) and Nova Southeastern University School (#19) both out of District Fourteen, Hialeah Educational Academy (#24) of District Fifteen and Homestead Keys Gate (#27) from District Sixteen. Boca Raton St. John Paul II (#38) and Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna (#39) are next in line should any of the above get upset.
The projected bracket in this region would look like this.
One Seed Miami Riviera Prep (#2) vs. Eight Seed Boca Raton St. Andrew’s (#37) at Riviera Prep
Four Seed Miami Country Day (#18) vs Five Seed “U-School” (#19) at Miami Country Day
Three Seed Doral Divine Savior (#17) vs. Six Seed Hialeah Educational Academy (#24) at Divine Savior
Two Seed Westminster Academy (#4) vs. Seventh Seed Keys Gate (#27) at Westminster Academy
Because St. Andrew’s has the lowest rating of the eight, it goes on the road as an eight seed despite being a district winner. This opens up a home game for Miami Country Day and a potential district rematch with “U-School”.