CLASS 4A

We came out 3-1 in our picks for last week’s regional finals in 4A.  We felt Gibbs had the experience to go on the road and beat county rival Boca Ciega but that didn’t take place.  “Bogey” squeezed out a three-point victory to earn a trip to Jacksonville.  In Region One, Bishop Kenny got past Tally Godby by ten.  In Region Two, the only region in this classification NOT to have the top seed make the regional final, Port Orange Atlantic, the two seed, got by four seed Eastside out of Gainesville by eight points.  In South Florida’s Region Four a pair of heavyweights tangled as district foes Suncoast (the top seed) and defending champ Stranahan met once again.  Suncoast was able to grab a five point victory and is the top seed in Jacksonville.  They will take on Boca Ciega on March 10 and Bishop Kenny tangles with Atlantic.

Best Matchup: Bishop Kenny came into the regional playoffs ranked #3 while Port Orange Atlantic came in at #5 in the classification.  BK comes in with the better record (23-2 vs 18-8) while Atlantic’s strength of schedule grades out higher (13.66 to 9.19).  The state semifinal is somewhat new territory for both teams so it will be interesting to see how each adapts to the spotlight.

Best Chance for an Upset: No matter which team wins the BK/Atlantic game, it won’t be an upset.  That leaves Boca Ciega (#12) against Suncoast (#2).  Boca Ciega will need 6’7 junior Anthony Brown to be at his best if they are to have any chance of derailing the Charger Express.

Our Picks

Suncoast over Boca Ciega

Bishop Kenny over Atlantic

Suncoast over Bishop Kenny for the Class 4A state title

CLASS 5A

Another 3-1 record, but what was truly unusual about last Saturday was all the top seeds won by double-digits.  The closest game was Lecanto’s twelve-point win over Pine Ridge in Region Two.  In Region Three, our selection of St. Pete HS fell to Tampa Jesuit by nineteen points.  Fleming Island won by twenty-four points in Region One while Pines Charter won by the same amount in Region Four.  All the top seeds made it to Jacksonville.  Pembroke Pines Charter has the top seed and faces Lecanto while Fleming Island and Tampa Jesuit matchup in the other semifinal on March 11.

Best Matchup: If it comes to fruition, the best matchup will be #1 Pembroke Pines Charter taking on #2 Fleming Island.  The Eagles of FI have been near the top of our list since seeing them over the summer.  Pines Charter has been playing great basketball lately.  The key may be how well Fleming Island can handle the Jaguars’ 6’8 senior Robert Guishard, a walking double-double and a guy that can make the type of plays in a game that swing momentum.  Each team must win first.

Best Chance for an Upset: With no shot clock, Jesuit can dictate tempo and force Fleming Island to play slower than it might prefer.  Also, Coach Goldman of Jesuit has over 500 wins to his credit and a state title to his name.  That experience could count for a great deal.

Our Picks

Pembroke Pines Charter over Lecanto

Fleming Island over Tampa Jesuit

Pembroke Pines Charter over Fleming Island for the Class 5A state title

CLASS 6A

All four home teams won last week, leaving us with a 3-1 record.  Bartow, our pick to win on the road, fell to top seed Evans in Orlando by six points in Region Two.  That was the closest game of the night in the Classification.  In Region One, Lake Howell had to rally to defeat “Cinderella” Buchholz to advance to Jacksonville.  In Region Three, Tampa Sickles prevailed over Parrish Community by nine.  In Region Four, to little surprise, St. Thomas Aquinas rolled Miramar by thirty-four.  Now that the teams are set, the question is “can anybody derail the runaway train that is St. Thomas Aquinas”?  Tampa Sickles will get the first crack at them on March 12.  Evans and Lake Howell, schools that are maybe twenty miles apart (if that) travel a couple of hours to meet up in the first game of the day at 9AM.  What is this, AAU?

Best Matchup: Evans and Lake Howell should be a good one, however we can’t get the image of Edgewater beating Evans so badly in the district tournament out of our heads.  Clearly, Evans has.  While we think the two best players in the game play for Lake Howell (6’0 sophomore Johnas Maurice and 6’6 senior Isaac Buckley), Evans has been to the state tournament each of the last two years and won’t be in awe of the moment.

Best Chance for an Upset: We really don’t see one.  A lot of crazy things will need to happen for St. Thomas to not repeat.

Our Picks

St. Thomas Aquinas over Tampa Sickles

Lake Howell over Evans

St. Thomas Aquinas over Lake Howell for the Class 6A state title

CLASS 7A

While we “officially” went 3-1 in our picks, we could reasonably argue we went 3-0 as the Winter Park/Lake Mary contest in Region One was a pick’em.  Lake Mary won by a single point at WP.  This gives them the honor of playing Columbus out of Miami.  The Explorers are looking to become the first school in the state’s largest classification to win five straight titles.  The Explorers certainly have the power to do it.  In Region Two, Oak Ridge took down crosstown rival Orlando Olympia to return to the state semis after a one-year absence.  In Region Three, Sarasota repeated as regional champion.  While Columbus isn’t the national power they were last season, they are still extremely formidable, considered the second best team in the state regardless of classification.  Their semi-final opponent, Lake Mary, is ranked #95.  In the other semi-final, Oak Ridge (#4) and Sarasota (#6) are at least much closer on paper.

Best Matchup: The best matchup should take place in the finals should Oak Ridge and Columbus advance.  Two years ago, Oak Ridge had a state title in hand only to have Columbus tie the game at the buzzer and win in overtime.  No doubt the Pioneers would love a crack at denying Columbus a history-making victory.  Oak Ridge’s depth and pressure at both ends of the floor could have an effect on the “Iron Five” that is Columbus.

Best Chance for an Upset: For the reasons just mentioned, Oak Ridge over Columbus is likely the only reasonable upset scenario. Both semis have a reasonable chance of being double-digit wins for the higher seed.

Our Picks

Columbus over Lake Mary

Oak Ridge over Sarasota

Columbus over Oak Ridge for the Class 7A state title.