The district tournaments are set and the regional round of the playoffs are a week-and-a-half away. We thought it might be interesting to try our hand at some “Bracketology” and try to determine the shape of the regional playoffs.
This year is different as the regional round will be “re-seeded” at the end of the district tournament and will include results from both the last week of the season as well as the district tournament. In the past, rankings at the end of the next to last week of the season, the last week for district play, was used for district seeding purposes as well as to determine the at-large seeds.
We used assumptions to get to the brackets. We based them on the idea that the district tournament will play out as seeded, with no upsets. From there, we used the FHSAA rankings as of January 30th to help determine seeding.
Here goes.
REGION ONE
This region may not have as much “juice” as some others but expect it to be very competitive. Jacksonville Mandarin (#62) from District One, Sanford Seminole (#32) from District Two, Orlando Evans (#18) from District Three and Orlando Colonial (#13) from District Four would earn the automatic bids under our scenario. The at-large qualifiers would then be Lake Mary (#44) from District Two, Altamonte Springs Lake Brantley (#25) and Ocoee (#36) from District Three, and Oviedo Hagerty (#23) from District Four.
The brackets would then be:
One Seed Colonial (#13) vs. Eight Seed Mandarin (#62) at Colonial
Four Seed Lake Brantley (#25) vs. Five Seed Seminole (#32) at Sanford Seminole
Three Seed Hagerty (#23) vs. Six Seed Ocoee (#36) at Hagerty
Two Seed Evans (#18) vs. Seven Seed Lake Mary (#44) at Evans
REGION TWO
In contrast to Region One, Region Two has a LOT of “juice” as six of the top ten teams in the classification reside here. Orlando Olympia (#2) from District Five, Orlando Lake Nona (#27) from District Six, Port St. Lucie Centennial (#10) from District Seven and Lake Worth (#4) from District Eight would be the automatic bids under our scenario. The at-large qualifiers would then be Orlando Oak Ridge (#5) and Windermere (#6) from District Five, Port St. Lucie Treasure Coast (#19) from District Seven and Wellington (#11) from District Eight. There will be some high-profile matchups all the way through this region tournament.
The brackets would then be:
One Seed Olympia (#2) vs. Eight Seed Lake Nona (#27) at Olympia
Four Seed Windermere (#6) vs. Five Seed Centennial (#10) at Centennial
Third Seed Oak Ridge (#5) vs. Six Seed Wellington (#11) at Oak Ridge
Second Seed Lake Worth (#4) vs. Seven Seed Treasure Coast (#19) at Lake Worth.
It will be interesting to see how Olympia’s loss the past weekend to 2A Lakeland Victory Christian impacts its seeding should it win its district tournament. If Olympia doesn’t win, then there will be a lot of movement by teams among the bracket lines.
REGION THREE
It is hard to envision a scenario where Winter Haven (#3) doesn’t advance to Lakeland, but the games are played on the court and not on paper, so here goes. Joining the Blue Devils as expected automatic qualifiers are Tarpon Springs East Lake (#12) from District Ten, Lithia Newsome (#15) from District Eleven, and Sarasota HS (#33) from District Twelve. The at-large teams would then be Plant City (#16) from District Nine, Tampa Alonso (#31) and Tampa Plant (#42) from District Ten and Riverview Sunmner (#34) from District Eleven.
The brackets would then shake out this way:
One Seed Winter Haven (#3) vs. Eight Seed Plant (#42) at Winter Haven
Four Seed Plant City (#16) vs. Five Seed Alonso (#31) at Plant City
Third Seed Newsome (#15) vs. Six Seed Sarasota HS (#33) at Newsome
Second Seed East Lake (#12) vs. Seven Seed Sumner (#34) at East Lake
REGION FOUR
Like Region Three, it is hard to see anyone dethroning Christopher Columbus, not just this season but for however long the Boozer twins are Explorers. Columbus should earn the automatic bid out of District Sixteen while Deerfield Beach (#8) from District Thirteen, Weston Cypress Bay from District Fourteen and Doral Academy (#17) would get automatic bids. At-large berths would then come from Stoneman Douglas of District Thirteen, Coral Glades (#20) and Taravella (#21) from District Fourteen and Miami Palmetto (#7) from District Sixteen. Coral Springs (#22) and Davie Western (#24) could sneak in with a run to the semi-finals or farther.
The brackets would then look like this:
One Seed Columbus (#1) vs. Eight Seed Taravella (#21) at Columbus
Four Seed Cypress Bay (#9) vs. Five Seed Stoneman Douglas (#14) at Cypress Bay
Three Seed Deerfield Beach (#8) vs. Six Seed Doral Academy (#17) at Deerfield Beach
Two Seed Miam Palmetto (#7) vs. Seven Seed Coral Glades (# 20) at Palmetto