CLASS 4A

District Upsets: Lots of surprises in this classification as seven of the sixteen top seeds heading into the district playoffs did not win the title.  #2 Godby defeated #1 Rickards in District 2, #2 Raines defeated #1 Ribault in District 3, #2 Bishop Kenny defeated #1 Paxon School.  All of that occurred in Region 1.  However, the only impact it had was Jacksonville Westside being bumped out of the eighth seed as Raines was on the outside looking in prior to the district playoffs.  In Region 2, #2 Santa Fe defeated #1 North Marion in District 5 while #2 Bishop Moore of Orlando surprised top seed Kissimmee Liberty in District 7.  Bishop Moore’s win bumped Lake Weir, who was looking at a seven seed, out of the regional round.  In Region 3, the only #2 over #1 was Island Coast over LaBelle in District 12.  This bumped LaBelle out of an expected eight seed in the regionals.  Finally, in Region 4, #3 seed Pembroke Somerset Academy defeated #1 Miami Central for the district title, but it had absolutely zero bearing on playoff seeds in that region.

Toughest Region: Region Four in South Florida has four of the top eight teams in the classification, spearheaded by #2 Miami Northwestern.  Fort Lauderdale Stranahan (#4), Miami Central (#6), and Miami St. Brendan (#8) are all worthy challengers.  Coach Melvin Randall continues to lead a remarkable renaissance of the Northwestern program.

Best Opening Matchup: The Riviera Beach Suncoast/Miami St. Brendan matchup should be plenty of fun.  St. Brendan likes to play up and down the floor and get off quick threes.  The Chargers of Suncoast won’t mind playing at a fast pace one bit.

Best Chance for an Upset: Nothing really jumps out.  Maybe Raines over Godby in Tallahassee or Boca Ciega facing a Dunedin team at home, a program that won its first district title in a long time last week.  Other than that, home teams should in all likelihood advance.

Our Picks:

Jacksonville Ribault over Fort Walton Beach

Jacksonville Bishop Kenny over Panama City Bay

Tallahassee Rickards over Jacksonville Paxon School

Tallahassee Godby over Jacksonville Raines

Eustis over Orlando Bishop Moore

Alachua Santa Fe over Kissimmee Liberty

Port Orange Atlantic over Tavares

Citra North Marion over Rockledge

St. Petersburg Gibbs over Naples Island Coast

Pinellas Seminole over Sarasota Booker

Tampa Blake over Tampa Chamberlain

Dunedin over Boca Ciega

Miami Northwestern over Pembroke Pines Somerset Academy

Riviera Beach Suncoast over Miami St. Brendan

Fort Lauderdale Stranahan over Naples Barron Collier

Miami Central over Miami Reagan

CLASS 5A

District Upsets: Not as many surprises in this classification but there were still a few.  In District 6, two seed Hudson Fivay took down top seed Wesley Chapel while in District 7, top seed Kissimmee Gateway fell in the semi-finals and #2 seed New Smyrna Beach defeated the six seed Deltona Pine Ridge in the title game.  Fivay’s win knocked out Spring Hill Springstead of the regional round in Region Two.  In Region Three, there were a pair of one seeds that fell in their respective finals.  Clearwater Countryside took down St. Petersburg while Naples took down neighboring Gulf Coast.  Naples’ win bumped Gulf Coast out of the regionals. In Region 4, Belen Jesuit surprised top seed Norland in the District 16 final. That result had no impact on the regional seeding.

Toughest Region: The eight teams in the Region One playoff are all ranked in the top twenty of the classification.  Fleming Island (#3), Gainesville (#5), and Ponte Vedra (#6) are at the top of the list but the remaining programs such as St. Augustine, Tallahassee Leon, and P’Cola Booker T. Washington are all dangerous opponents no matter the location.

Best Opening Matchup: By the numbers, it should Tallahassee Leon at St. Augustine.  Leon is ranked 11, has a rating of 15.324 and a strength of schedule of 6.89.  St. Augustine’s numbers are 12, 15.625, and 6.7.  Won’t find a more even matchup metrics-wise on Wednesday night.

Best Chance for an Upset: Lecanto is the two seed in Region Two but is on the road at seven seed New Smyrna Beach.  The home team usually has a big advantage regardless of the seeding, so this should be considered an upset if Lecanto wins.  In the same region, Ocala Vanguard had better numbers than Wesley Chapel except in the win/loss column over the course of the season.  Still, Vanguard has to go on the road and face a WC team that is looking for redemption after losing out on a district title.

Our Picks:

Fleming Island over Tallahassee Lincoln

St. Augustine over Tallahassee Leon

Ponte Vedra over P’Cola Booker T. Washington

Gainesville over Lake City Columbia

Leesburg over Hudson Fivay

Wesley Chapel over Ocala Vanguard

New Smyrna Beach over Lecanto

Auburndale over Kissimmee Gateway

Port Charlotte over Naples

St. Petersburg over Cape Coral

Tampa Jesuit over Clearwater

Clearwater Countryside over Bradenton Southeast

Pembroke Pines Charter over Delray Beach Atlantic

Miami Belen Jesuit over Stuart South Fork

Pompano Beach Ely over Hialeah American

Miami Norland over Broward Archbishop McCarthy

CLASS 6A

District Upsets: Just like in 4A, seven of the top sixteen district one seeds did not win their respective district tournaments.  Region One was perhaps the most chaotic of all.  In District One, three seed Milton won the title while both the one and two seeds lost in the semis.  Two seed Fletcher defeated One seed Oakleaf in District Two while in District Four, top seed Lake Howell fell to two seed Oviedo.  Despite all of this, all of the projected regional participants made it into the playoffs. Region Two had a pair of two seeds take district titles.  In District Five, two seed Orlando Edgewater defeated one seed Orlando Evans in a battle of #2 vs. #3 overall in the classification.  In District 8, Tampa Gaither, the two seed, ousted Valrico Bloomingdale.  That loss knocked Bloomingdale out of the regional playoffs as they were looking at an eight seed had they won.  Region Three also had two instances where the top seed didn’t win the district title.  In District 10, two seed Tampa Sickles took down East Lake out of Tarpon Springs while Naples Palmetto Ridge ousted Fort Myers Gateway.  Palmetto Ridge’s win kept Gateway out of the regional round of the playoffs.  Only in Region Four did things stay true to form.

Toughest Region: It feels like Region One has a lot of teams with rankings proximity bunched together and regardless of ranking no clear favorite.  While six of the eight teams in the regional playoff are ranked in the top 20 of the classification, they are bunched between numbers 5 and 16.  Milton, the five seed, has the third best strength of schedule and the eye test says they can defeat the top teams in the region.

Best Opening Matchup: We like the matchup in Region Four of Miami Southridge and Coral Springs.  Coral Springs is the third seed but is on the road at Southridge.  Our hope is that Southridge’s 6’0 senior Ocien Valdez and Coral Springs’ 6’3 senior Alex Pierre-Louis put on a shooting demonstration for the ages.

Best Chance of an Upset: In Region One, if the Oakleaf team that we have seen in the past at the FABC Team Camp comes to Lake Howell, they will give the homestanding Silver Hawks all they want and more.  In Region Four, Martin County needs to be wary of a Boyd Anderson team that fears no one after playing a tough schedule in Broward County.

Our Picks:

St. Johns Tocoi Creek over Jacksonville Fletcher

Milton over Oviedo

Oakleaf over Winter Park Lake Howell

Ocala Forest over Crestview

Orlando Evans over Tampa Gaither

Bartow over Orlando East River

Orlando Edgewater over Melbourne

Viera over Lake Minneola

Wiregrass Ranch over Naples Palmetto Ridge

Tampa Wharton over Palmetto

Punta Gorda Charlotte over Sunlake

Tampa Sickles over Tarpon Springs East Lake

Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas over Palm Beach Gardens Dwyer

Miramar over South Plantation

Stuart Martin County over Lauderdale Lakes Boyd Anderson

Miami Southridge over Coral Springs

CLASS 7A

District Upsets: A bit of normalcy returned as thirteen of the sixteen district titles were claimed by the one seed.  In District two, fourth seeded Lake Mary stunned everyone by taking the district tournament title.  This, in effect, bumped Oviedo Hagerty from the regional round.  Region Two, the strongest of the regions, had three notable ones.  In District 6, two seed Harmony defeated top seed St. Cloud while in District 7, third seed Port St. Lucie Centennial took the title.  Harmony’s win essentially bumped Jupiter out of the regional round.  There may have been no bigger upset in any of the classifications as Orlando Olympia’s last second win over Orlando Oak Ridge in the District 5 semi-finals.  Oak Ridge still gets a two seed in the regionals.  In Region Four, two seed Cypress Bay knocked off the top seed Davie Western.  That win didn’t change much in the way of regional seedings.

Toughest Region: With the surprising struggles of Oak Ridge lately, Region Two has become much more open and competitive.  Windermere deserves the top seed but Oak Ridge and Olympia are very talented, three seed Wellington is #6 in the classification and the other contestants have shown they can defeat anyone on any given night.

Best Opening Matchup: Three games stand out.  St. Cloud at Olympia will be a matchup of experience (St. Cloud) vs youth (Olympia).  St. Cloud has the edge in the backcourt while the size of Olympia could give St. Cloud problems. Down in Wellington, it is a contrast in styles between the fast and free-flowing pace of Fort Pierce Central and the precision of Wellington.  This could be a game in the 70s or one in the 40s; it all depends on whose will gets enforced.  Finally the Coral Glades/Miami Palmetto matchup in Region Four looks interesting.  Both teams are tough and gritty.

Best Chance of an Upset: There is no reason to believe that Doral Academy can’t go into Columbus and w..(just wanted to see if you were paying attention).  Every game in Region One is a pick’em game except for maybe Colonial at Apopka.  It just seems like all of the home teams (save Centennial taking on Oak Ridge) have an advantage and should move on Wednesday night.

Our Picks:

St. Augustine Creekside over Lake Mary

Orlando University over Sanford Seminole

Apopka over Orlando Colonial

Winter Park over Altamonte Springs Lake Brantley

Windermere over Harmony

Orlando Olympia over St. Cloud

Orlando Oak Ridge over Port St. Lucie Centennial

Wellington over Fort Pierce Central

Kissimmee Osceola over Sarasota Riverview

Tampa Newsome over Tampa Plant

Sarasota over Poinciana

Lehigh over Plant City

Columbus over Doral Academy

Weston Cypress Bay over Davie Western

Miami High over Lake Worth Park Vista

Coral Springs Coral Glades over Miami Palmetto