18 Feb 2024

2024 First Round Regional Wrap-Up & Second Round Forecast: 1A – 3A

CLASS 1A

Wow…Just…Wow.  Thursday night was rife with upsets.  Three of the #1 seeds fell at home as did a #2 seed.  Another #2 seed, Hilliard, survived by a single point against third seed Newberry.  Jay turned around and defeated top-seeded Paxon after Paxon beat Jay in the district tournament in Region One.  Cottondale, the four seed in Region Two, knocked off the one-seed Bozeman.  Fort White, the four seed in Region Three, defeated top seed Hawthorne in Hawthorne, less than a week after losing to the Hornets in the district finals.  Finally, in Region Four, Trenton went on the road and defeated #2 seed Chiefland.  While our predictions turned out to be a less-than-stellar 4-4, we would be surprised if anybody expected anything remotely close to what took place Thursday night.

Best Matchup: The Fort White/Hilliard matchup looks to be an intriguing regional final.  At the end of the regular season, Hilliard was ranked third and Fort White fifth in the FHSAA rankings for Class 1A.  Another one to watch is in Region One where Jay goes on the road to take on Chipley.  This is a rematch from last season and no doubt Jay would like to have a different outcome this time around.

Best Chance for an Upset: The only game that would be considered an upset would be if Trenton were to somehow get past Williston in Region Four.  In the other three regions, it won’t surprise no matter who wins.

Our Picks

Chipley over Jay

Crossroad Academy over Cottondale

Hilliard over Fort White

Williston over Trenton

CLASS 2A

Thankfully, things returned to “normal” as we only stumbled once in our first-round picks.  And that was with West Palm Beach Atlantic Christian going on the road and defeating Grandview Prep in Boca Raton by a single point.  The closest margin of victory in any of the other quarter-finals in Class 2A was a seven point win by Mount Dora Christian.  All other victories were in double-digits.  Hopefully, the semi-final contests on Tuesday will be much more competitive.

Best Matchup: All eyes will be in Central Florida as upstart North Tampa Christian comes to perennial power Orlando Christian Prep.  OCP welcomed back 6’5 senior and Florida Gator signee Isaiah Brown after being out since early December with a nasty ankle injury.  The Warriors have done well in his absence, finishing the regular season ranked third in the final Class 2A rankings.  North Tampa Christian is a young but talented group and they are looking to make a statement with a win in Orlando.

Best Chance for an Upset: Looking over the eight games, nothing jumps out as a possible upset, except for possibly the above mentioned OCP-NTC contest.  In all the other games, the home team has a fairly significant ranking difference between it and the opponent.

Our Picks

Jacksonville Impact Christian over Quincy Munroe

Jacksonville North Florida Educational over Jacksonville University Christian

Lakeland Victory Christian over Mount Dora Christian

Orlando Christian Prep over North Tampa Christian

Tampa SLAM over Naples Neumann

Clearwater Lakeside Christian over St. Petersburg Admiral Farragut

Weston Sagemont over West Palm Beach Atlantic Christian

Miami True North over Miami Westwood Christian

CLASS 3A

We nearly went unscathed with our picks but Florida High’s win on the road at The Master’s Academy left us with a 15-1 mark.  That was a four vs five game and after having seen both teams play this season, it was definitely a pick’em situation.  We nearly went 14-2 but St. Andrew’s was able to hold off U-School down in Boca Raton by a single point on Thursday night.  Only two of the remaining fourteen games were decided by single digits, meaning there were many beatdowns that took place.  Again, as in Class 2A, we hope for more competitive games this coming Tuesday.

Best Matchup: Tampa Catholic at Gateway Charter in Fort Myers may not have a big-time feel to it, but both teams have been playing well of late, particularly Tampa Catholic.  Gateway Charter should have the advantage inside with 6’8 junior Patrick Johnson, but Isaiah Campbell-Finch, a 6’1 junior at Tampa Catholic, has been lighting up scoreboards all season long.  It will be interesting to see which team can impose its will on the other Tuesday night.

Best Chance for an Upset: Call me crazy (and many have called me worse) but it wouldn’t by a real stunner if First Baptist Academy of Naples pulled off another road stunner to take out top seeded Berkeley Prep in Tampa.  Also, an athletic Holy Trinity Episcopal team could go into Santa Fe Catholic in Lakeland and cause real problems if things bounce right.

Our Picks

Jacksonville Providence over Tallahassee Florida High

Jacksonville Episcopal over Marianna

Windermere Prep over West Palm Beach Cardinal Newman

Lakeland Santa Fe Catholic over Melbourne Holy Trinity Episcopal

Tampa Berkeley Prep over Naples First Baptist Academy

Fort Myers Gateway Charter over Tampa Catholic

Fort Lauderdale Westminster Academy over Boca Raton St. Andrew’s

Miami Riviera Prep over Hialeah Educational Academy

 

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