CLASS 4A

We got all four region final picks correct but Gibbs’ one point win over Blake certainly had us sweating.  Both Eustis and Stranahan held serve at home.  While Ribault’s win at home over Rickards of Tallahassee wasn’t a surprise, the twenty-five-point margin of victory certainly caught us off-guard.  All four teams won each of their respective playoff games on their home court.  It will be interesting to see how the teams adapt to the cavernous Lakeland Center.

Best Matchup: Ribault and Stranahan play a similar style in that both hang their hats on the defensive end and use that to fuel their offense.  Stranahan has played a bit of a stronger schedule so we’ll see if that comes into play.  Conversely, Ribault is led by a group of seniors while the Dragons of Stranahan have only one senior of note.

Best Chance for an Upset: Honestly, unlikely.  Gibbs is the reigning champion, has played a tough schedule, and is one of the better teams in the state regardless of class.  It will take a herculean effort to knock them off.

Our Picks

St. Petersburg Gibbs over Eustis

Fort Lauderdale Stranahan over Jacksonville Ribault

St. Petersburg Gibbs over Fort Lauderdale Stranahan for the Class 4A State Title

CLASS 5A

We took a step back as we went 3-1 with our regional final picks in this classification.  Ely went across town and defeated Pines Charter on the road.  Both Ponte Vedra and Leesburg won at home by double-digits while St. Pete High once again took to the road and defeated Pinellas County rival Countryside out of Clearwater.  Leesburg is the only top regional seed to make it to Lakeland as both Ely and Ponte Vedra were two seeds while St. Pete came in as a four seed.

Best Matchup: The boxing adage is “contrasting styles make for interesting fights”.  If so, then Ponte Vedra vs. Leesburg should be interesting.  Ponte Vedra will run when the opportunity presents itself but is most comfortable being methodical in half-court sets.  Leesburg is going to use its athleticism to offset Ponte Vedra’s size advantage and speed up the contest.

Best Chance for an Upset: This classification is wide-open.  Ely certainly has the tradition and has played the strongest schedule, but it has been a minute or two since the Tigers were in Lakeland.  St. Petersburg clearly has caught fire at the right time.  Ponte Vedra has been here the past two years and is hungrier than ever to grab their first title.  Leesburg is no stranger to playing in a championship atmosphere.  The title is certainly up for grabs.

Our Picks

Pompano Beach Ely over St. Petersburg

Ponte Vedra over Leesburg

Ponte Vedra over Pompano Beach Ely for the Class 5A State Title

CLASS 6A

Another 3-1 record as the home teams held serve in each regional final.  Orlando Evans beat neighboring Edgewater, but it took FIVE OVERTIMES to do so.  Tocoi Creek, an unknown commodity to many, won big in their regional final.  Both Punta Gorda Charlotte and Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas had single digit wins which was closer than expected.  Only Charlotte, a two seed in their region, was not a regional tournament one seed.  However, like all the others, all three of their playoff games were on their home court.

Best Matchup: Coming into the district tournaments, Evans was ranked #2 in the classification while Tocoi Creek was ranked #6.  On one side, Evans defeated Lake Howell during the regular season by just a single point while Tocoi defeated the Silver Hawks by eighteen.  On the other, Evans was here just last year and gave nationally ranked Columbus all they wanted before falling while this will be Tocoi Creek’s first trip to the Lakeland Center.

Best Chance for an Upset: Should Evans and St. Thomas Aquinas meet in the final, Evans has the talent, guard play, and size to give STA trouble.  It will take Evans’ best game of the season to do so, but we’ve seen stranger things happen in the Lakeland Center this time of year.

Our Picks

Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas over Punta Gorda Charlotte

Orlando Evans over St. Johns Tocoi Creek

Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas over Orlando Evans for the Class 6A State Title

CLASS 7A

Whiff.  If it weren’t for the “lock” that is Miami Columbus, we likely would have gone 0-4 in our regional final picks in Class 7A.  Sanford Seminole got on a roll in the regional tournament and simply refused to lose on the road as the five seed.  Windermere took down highly regarded Oak Ridge in a matchup of district rivals that had not played each other this season.  Sarasota was able to go on the road and take down the region’s top seed.  This was the most surprising region in terms of who made it to Lakeland when compared to the start of the season.

Best Matchup: It isn’t Seminole vs. Columbus.  The Windermere/Sarasota contest features a pair of teams that are well-coached, can play at any tempo, and have both solid guard play and an interior presence.  Our guess is points in the paint will be hard to come by, so whichever team can find its perimeter shooting stroke most likely will gain the advantage.

Best Chance for an Upset: As dominant as Columbus has been the past three seasons, they have “played with fire” all three title games.  Last second wins the first two times and a near-gifted win in OT last year give hope to either winner of the Windermere/Sarasota game.  Columbus isn’t just playing for a state championship but a shot at the Chipotle Nationals at the end of March.  A loss in Lakeland blows that out of the water.

Our Picks

Miami Columbus over Sanford Seminole

Windermere over Sarasota

Miami Columbus over Windermere for the Class 7A State Title