RURAL

Well, THAT didn’t go well.  We were a diaper dumpster fire of 1-3 in our picks for the regional finals.  In our defense, all three were one possession games.  Graceville continued its road warrior ways with a two-point win at Chipley.  Fort White upset the pre-season favorite Hilliard at Hilliard by three points and Hawthorne got its redemption by defeating two-time defending champ Williston by two points at home after losing two weeks ago in the district final.

Best Matchup: Give us the Crossroad Academy vs Fort White contest in this category.  Fort White won its two playoff contests by just two points each time while Crossroad has had an easier time of it with wins at home by six and nineteen points respectively.  Should the game stay tight deep into the final period, will Fort White’s experience in that type of game give them the advantage?

Best Chance for an Upset: Graceville has taken down a pair of good teams in Bonifay Bethlehem and Chipley on the road, so expect their confidence to be very high when facing the top-ranked team in the classification.  They will have to survive a hungry Hawthorne team that is out to prove they are as much of a championship caliber team without C.J. Ingram (now at Montverde) as they were with him.

Our Picks

Hawthorne over Graceville

Fort White over Quincy Crossroad Academy

Hawthorne over Fort White for Rural Class State Title

CLASS 1A

We went 4-0 in our region final picks in this classification.  However, we continue to be concerned about the huge margin of victory in these contests.  The lowest from Thursday was thirty-four points.  A lack of competitive balance in all classifications is something the FHSAA should be concerned about.  This classification shows there are a few “haves” and a great many “have nots”.  The semi-finals matchups are Weston Sagemont vs. Jacksonville Impact Christian and North Tampa Christian vs. Lakeland Victory Christian.

Best Matchup: After a region tournament filled with blowouts, both of the semi-finals will hopefully be more competitive.  Sagemont needs to be mentally prepared to take on a tested Impact Christian squad and not “expect” another easy contest to reach the finals.  Likewise, North Tampa Christian should be wary of a young but talented Victory Christian team that will be playing in front of a boisterous home crowd.  Regardless of who reaches the final, all three games should be closely contested.

Best Chance for an Upset: Victory Christian over North Tampa Christian is the best chance for an upset in the semi-finals.  Playing front of a home crowd against a team that can be up and down as North Tampa Christian has been at times this season gives Victory a legit chance to reach the title game.

Our Picks

Weston Sagemont over Jacksonville Impact Christian

North Tampa Christian Academy over Lakeland Victory Christian

Weston Sagemont over North Tampa Christian for Class 1A State Title

CLASS 2A

Another 4-0 record in our region final picks.  There were close games on one side of the bracket as Naples First Baptist Academy won by eight points over Tampa SLAM while in Miami, Riviera Prep downed Miami Country Day by four to reach Lakeland for the third straight year. On the other side of the bracket, the games were less competitive.  University Christian of Jacksonville defeated visiting Master’s Academy by sixteen and Santa Fe Catholic won by a whopping forty-five points over visiting John Carroll from Fort Pierce.  That is the third game in a row that Santa Fe Catholic has held opponents under thirty points in a contest.

Best Matchup: Jacksonville University Christian and Santa Fe Catholic are quite different from each other.  UC will have the size advantage with a pair of 6’9 guys they rotate while Santa Fe Catholic will counter with some heady guard play at both ends of the court.  If Santa Fe can defend like it did in the regionals, it may not matter how big University Christian is.  Also, the home crowd will by on the side of Santa Fe Catholic.

Best Chance for an Upset: Riviera Prep may have lost Dante Allen to Montverde and Gustavo Guimares to injury but still have more than enough talent to “three-peat”.  If an upset comes, it will most likely be in the finals against Riviera Prep.

Our Picks

Miami Riviera Prep over Naples First Baptist Academy

Lakeland Santa Fe Catholic over Jacksonville University Christian

Miami Riviera Prep over Lakeland Santa Fe Catholic for the Class 2A State Championship

CLASS 3A

Another sweep in our picks.  Maybe we should buy that Powerball ticket tonight.  Jacksonville Jackson held off Tallahassee Florida High by nine in an exciting contest.  In the closest game of the night, The Villages Charter was able to hold off a hot Tampa Catholic squad by just four points.  Nationally-ranked Calvary Christian won big against St. Andrew’s while Cardinal Gibbons of Fort Lauderdale sent Miami Gulliver Prep home with a fourteen point win.  The semi-finals feature Broward county neighbors Calvary Christian taking on Cardinal Gibbons while The Villages Charter matches up against Jacksonville Jackson.

Best Matchup: Something’s got to give in the Jackson/Villages matchup.  The Villages lowest scoring output in the regional round was 75 points while the most Jackson gave up in their regional playoff games was 55 points.  Both teams play at a fast pace offensively with Jackson the more likely to extend defensive pressure.  If The Villages can take care of the basketball and keep their turnovers (especially live ball and unforced ones) to a minimum, it will be to their advantage.

Best Chance for an Upset: Calvary Christian has been a juggernaut all season long.  Our guess is if the Eagles are to be gotten, it will come in the semis against Cardinal Gibbons and only because Calvary is looking ahead to hoisting a trophy and not focused on the task at hand.

Our Picks

Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian over Fort Lauderdale Cardinal Gibbons

Jacksonville Andrew Jackson over The Villages Charter

Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian over Jacksonville Jackson for the Class 3A State Championship