19 Feb 2026

2026 First Round Regional Wrap-Up & Region Semis Forecast – 4A and 5A

CLASS 4A

Oh so close to a clean sweep last Saturday.  Our only “trip up” was Eustis falling by three points to Gainesville Eastside.  There were some surprisingly close calls.  In Region One, second seed Godby held on to win by five over Jacksonville Raines.  That was our call for the Best Opening Matchup.  On the other side of that bracket, third seed Fort Walton defeated Tally Rickards by just three points.  In Regio Two, Lake Weir was a mere two points away from taking down the three seed Palm Bay on its home court.  In Region Three, Seminole out of Pinellas County held on for a five-point win over visiting Nature Coast Tech out of Brooksville.

Best Matchup: In our mind, the Suncoast/Mater Lakes Academy matchup will by dynamic and entertaining.  Both teams want to get out and run, so it won’t surprise if this game gets into the 80s or higher for one or both teams on the scoreboard.  Neither team has great size, so it will definitely be a guards’ game in Riviera Beach Saturday night.

Best Chance for an Upset: The #6 team in the classification, Miami Northwestern, runs up I-95 to take on defending champ and the #4 team Stranahan.  We are admittedly stunned at Stranahan’s somewhat lackluster record.  The Bulls’ Melvin Randall is always a tough out when he is roaming the sidelines.

Our Picks

Bishop Kenny over Pensacola

Godby over Fort Walton Beach

North Marion over Eastside

Port Orange Atlantic over Palm Bay

Boca Ciega over Gulf

St. Pete Gibbs over Seminole

Suncoast over Mater Lakes Academy

Stranahan over Miami Northwestern

 

CLASS 5A

We took some tough body blows on our way to a 12-4 record with our Saturday predictions.  Lake City Columbia went on the road to beat Tallahassee Lincoln by a single point.  We truly believed in a healthy Leesburg team but Lecanto held serve handily at home.  New Smyrna Beach bounced back from its district tournament loss to win on the road at Wesley Chapel.  Finally in Region Three, Clearwater took down Gulf Coast by two points in a contest we labeled as the best opening matchup.

Best Matchup: We’re looking at #14 Braden River crossing the bridge to take on the #8 Green Devils in St. Petersburg.  St. Pete is more than just super soph Nijaun Harris, but it seems like Braden River has been building toward this season for at least the past year if not longer.  This should be both competitive and entertaining.

Best Chance for an Upset: In Region Two, district foes Pine Ridge and New Smyrna Beach clash for the fourth time.  What is surprising is that all the wins have been by double-digits and Pine Ridge won their district tournament matchup on the road.  Pine Ridge comes in as the seven seed while New Smyrna Beach grabbed a three seed despite not winning its district tournament.  NSB’s seniors will need to make a strong stand Saturday night.

Our Picks

Fleming Island over P’Cola B.T. Washington

Ponte Vedra over Columbia

Lecanto over Auburndale

New Smyrna Beach over Pine Ridge

Tampa Jesuit over Clearwater

St. Petersburg over Braden River

Pembroke Pines Charter over Delray Beach Atlantic

Belen Jesuit over Plantation

 

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