CLASS 4A

District Upsets: There were relatively few in this classification.  In District 9, Gulf out of New Port Richey, the two seed, knocked off top seed Nature Coast Tech out of Brooksville.  Both made the regional round.  In District 11, which contained the three highest ranked teams in the region, #13 Gibbs defeated #12 Boca Ciega.  Four of the five teams from this district reached the regional round.  In SWFL’s District 13, third seed Naples Aubry Rogers emerged as the champ.  That win may have effectively knocked out higher ranked Plantation American Heritage and Miami St. Brendan.  Lastly, in District 14, Stranahan, the two seed but #4 overall in the classification, knocked off top seed and #1 in the classification Suncoast.

Toughest Region: Four of the top eight teams in the classification reside in Region Four in South Florida.  Suncoast dropped from #1 to #2, while defending champ Stranahan is #4 but with a Strength of Schedule number nearly double that of the next closest program.  Miami Northwestern is the sixth ranked team while Mater Lakes Academy out of Hialeah is #8.

Best Opening Matchup: In Region 1, Jacksonville Raines travels to Tallahassee Godby.  Generally, when teams from these cities matchup, a good crowd results and the atmosphere is more charged than usual for a high school basketball game.  We expect the same on Saturday night.

Best Chance for an Upset: None jump out.  For arguments sake, we’ll throw out the Ribault at Bishop Kenny matchup (#1 vs #8) as an option.  Ribault has had success in the regional round the last two years, so the program has confidence to go on the road and be more than a handful for BK.

Our Picks:

Bishop Kenny over Ribault

Pensacola over Baker County

Godby over Raines

Fort Walton Beach over Rickards

North Marion over Satellite

Eustis over Eastside

Port Orange Atlantic over Bishop Moore

Palm Bay over Lake Weir

Boca Ciega over LaBelle

Gulf over Booker

Gibbs over Chamberlain

Seminole over Nature Coast Tech

Suncoast over Barron Collier

Mater Lakes Academy over Lely

Stranahan over Key West

Northwestern over Aubry Rogers

CLASS 5A

District Upsets: There were some notable surprises coming out of the district tournaments in this classification.  In District Two, third seed Tallahassee Leon defeated the four seed Gainesville HS, to win the district.  Tally Lincoln and Lake City Columbia, the one and two seeds respectively, still easily managed to find a spot in the regional round.  In District 5, Vanguard defeated top seed Lecanto.  In District 7, fourth seeded Pine Ridge upset top seed New Smyrna Beach in the semis.  Also in this district, Orlando Jones’ one-point semi-final loss was enough to bounce them out of the regional round and for Leesburg to jump ahead of them into the eighth spot.  In District 11 in Southwest Florida, third-seed North Fort Myers upset top seed Cape Coral to take the title.  NFM most likely would not have made it into the regional round as an at-large bid.  Finally, Jensen Beach took down top seed Stuart South Fork in District 13.  Congrats to mentor Guy Power and son Ryan Power for that achievement.

Toughest Region: Four of the top seven teams reside in Region 1.  Fleming Island is rated #2 in the state for 5A while Ponte Vedra comes in at #4.  Tally Lincoln is #6 while Pensacola is #7.  One interesting side note: Of those four, Fleming Island has the most losses (8) but the highest strength of schedule.  Conversely, Tally Lincoln has only two losses on the season but the lowest strength of schedule.  Finally, no team in this region is ranked below #20; every other region has multiple teams ranked lower.

Best Opening Matchup: By the numbers, it should be #20 Clearwater visiting Naples Gulf Coast, ranked #18.

Best Chance for an Upset: Back in January, Lecanto defeated Leesburg in double-OT at Leesburg.  The Yellow Jackets were missing two of their top three players in that game.  If those two are back and healthy, it could make a world of difference, even if the game is being played at Lecanto this time around.

Our Picks:

Fleming Island over Gainesville

Pensacola Washington over Tallahassee Leon

Ponte Vedra over Mosley

Lincoln over Columbia

Leesburg over Lecanto

Auburndale over Seabreeze

Pine Ridge over Vanguard

Wesley Chapel over New Smyrna Beach

Tampa Jesuit over North Fort Myers

Gulf Coast over Clearwater

St. Petersburg over Dunbar

Braden River over Cape Coral

Pines Charter over Jensen Beach

Atlantic over Norland

Belen Jesuit over South Fork

Plantation over Archbishop McCarthy