CLASS 5A

A pair of upsets along the coast kept us from an unblemished record with our semi-final predictions.  Ponte Vedra, the two-seed in Region One and ranked #4 in the class suffered a double-digit loss to Lake City Columbia, the six seed.  Columbia must again go on the road and take on top seed Fleming Island, which has dispatched its two regional opponents by 20+ each time out.  In Region Two, the seven seed Pine Ridge knocked off district rival and third-seed New Smyrna Beach by a single point.  They now go across the state to face top seed Lecanto, which outlasted Auburndale.  Regions Three and Four were true to form.  Tampa Jesuit had no trouble with Clearwater while St. Petersburg took down Braden River in a blowout.  We had identified that game as the best matchup of the round but clearly St. Pete had other plans.  Down south in Region Four, top seeded Pembroke Pines Charter put a running clock on Delray Beach Atlantic while second seed Belen Jesuit fended off Plantation by five points.

Best Matchup: Pine Charter and Belen are ranked #1 and #3 in the class respectively and it seems a bit unsatisfactory that teams that highly ranked should meet before the Final Four.  While Pines Charter has a size and athleticism advantage, Belen plays a unique brand of basketball that could give the Jaguars fits.

Best Chance for an Upset: Pine Ridge definitely has the talent and size to knock off Lecanto on the road.  In 6’7 junior Henry Robinson and 6’5 senior Wilmar Delarosa, Pine Ridge has a pair of scorers that are tough to match up with.  Lecanto will rely on a backcourt that averages nearly fifty points a contest in 5’11 senior J.T. Tipton and 6’0 senior Braylen Moore.  This may come down to which supporting cast is better in the defined roles.

Our Picks

Fleming Island over Lake City Columbia

Lecanto over Pine Ridge

St. Petersburg over Tampa Jesuit

Pembroke Pines Charter over Belen Jesuit

CLASS 6A

Our lone miss was Bartow going on the road and knocking off a solid Orlando Edgewater squad in Region Two.  The game was tied with under four minutes to play and Bartow just imposed its will to win.  They will return to Orlando to take on top seeded Evans.  If you like circular logic, then Bartow should win easy as they defeated an Edgewater team that beat Evans by double-digits in the district title game three weeks ago.  If you prefer REAL logic, then you know this should be a very competitive contest.  In Region One, two seed Lake Howell will host Buchholz out of Gainesville, a five seed.  Lake Howell had to survive double-OT to defeat a tough Tocoi Creek squad.  They better not let their guard down if they want to avoid the upset.  In Region Three, both top seed Sickles and second seed Parrish Community won their respective games with ease.  Both St. Thomas Aquinas and Miramar won by double-digits down in Region Four.

Best Matchup: On paper, #3 Evans hosting #6 Bartow should be the pick.  However, we are going to talk up the Sickles/Parrish matchup.  Rated #13 and #14 respectively in the class, both teams are similar in terms of size and playing style.  Each team can play up-tempo or slow down style at the offensive end.  It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Best Chance for an Upset: By virtue of its lower seed, a Buchholz win over Lake Howell would certainly meet the criteria for an upset.  However, a Miramar win over St. Thomas Aquinas would be an even greater upset.  The likelihood of a Buchholz win is much larger than one for Miramar.

Our Picks

Lake Howell over Buchholz

Bartow over Evans

Sickles over Parrish Community

St. Thomas Aquinas over Miramar

CLASS 7A

We came out of Saturday night with a 6-2 record in our predictions.  Tampa Plant’s win on the road at Kissimmee Osceola by a single point put people on notice in Region Three.  Now Plant must try to duplicate that effort on the road at top seed Sarasota who has been blasting opponents in the regional round.  Coral Glades went on the road and defeated a very good Miami Palmetto team.  This may have been a case where the Jaguars strength of schedule came into play.  Now they get a rematch with Columbus, who “survived” a five-point win over Davie Western.  Columbus and Coral Glades played each other in the pre-season and it wasn’t close as Columbus dominated.  No doubt things have changed/evolved over the last few months for both teams.  Region One went according to script as the top seed Winter Park and second seed Lake Mary won their respective games and will meet at Winter Park Saturday night. In Central Florida’s Region Two, top seed Oak Ridge survived a scare from Windermere while Olympia had little trouble with visiting Wellington.  Oak Ridge won the last meeting between the two teams in the district title game three weeks ago.

Best Matchup: We are going to go with the Columbus/Coral Glades game.  We were at the aforementioned pre-season game and it really wasn’t close.  Since then, Columbus has proved to be somewhat mortal while Coral Glades seems to be picking up steam.  The question may be is Columbus getting tired having relied so much on its starters the entire season?  They will have had a week to rest or rust depending on your point of view.

Best Chance for an Upset: The biggest gap in ranking between opponents on Saturday night is #16 Plant going down I-75 to #6 Sarasota.  Plant will need to bring every variety of good luck charm possible to replicate its on-the-road win against Osceola.

Our Picks

Winter Park over Lake Mary

Oak Ridge over Olympia

Sarasota over Plant

Columbus over Coral Glades